By Robert Perea and Tony Erquiaga
Robert
If you want a masterclass in humility, try predicting the actions of 18-22-year-olds on a football field. Last week’s slate was a reminder that the football gods have a wicked sense of humor.
It’s nearly impossible in college football to blow a 10-point second-half lead in a game where you run the ball 50 times for 289 yards, especially when you add in 192 yards passing. But that’s exactly what Texas St. did, mainly by turning the ball over three times, plus a failed 4th-and-2, which is essentially a turnover, and allowing three long touchdown drives, including the 82-yard game-winning drive in the last four minutes of the game.
Three weeks in a row I’ve lost a game like that, where the mathematical odds of losing either one of them based on the game flow or the box score were no higher than the low teens.
But the beauty of a new week is a clean ledger. We are throwing out the panic buttons, ignoring the talk-show overreactions, and diving right back into the fire. Here is this week’s plan to get back in the black.
Virginia Tech (-3) at Maryland: As I mentioned last week in picking Maryland over UConn, the Terrapins under Mike Locksley have been a great bully when favored against outmanned teams but haven’t responded well at all against the better teams. Now here come the Hokies with their new coach James Franklin, who was an assistant along with Locksley at Maryland in the early 2000s. There have been reports through the years that they have a contentious relationship, including a confrontation on the field after a game in 2024 when Locksley took exception to Penn St. running up the score against his Terrapins. Best believe that if Franklin gets the chance, he’ll do it again.
East Carolina (+3) at Old Dominion: East Carolina has a Power 4-type fan base that is upset and embarrassed by last week’s loss at home to Appalachian St. ECU has been resilient the last two-and-a-half years under coach Blake Harrell, and at 0-2 they will play with purpose to keep the season from getting away from them.
Clemson (-3) over North Carolina: I fully acknowledge that Clemson is not what it was just a few years ago and probably isn’t going to get back to that under Dabo Swinney. I also don’t believe North Carolina’s win against a mistake-prone TCU or outmanned East Tennessee St. means they have gotten past all the dysfunction. Especially now that Tait Reynolds is starting at QB, think Clemson is still the better team, and will find a way to gut this one out.
Panthers (-2 ½) at Falcons: Yep, I really am laying points on the road with a team that gave up 59 points last week and has lost outright the last nine times they’ve been favored. The Panthers had 486 yards of offense and scored 37 points last week and still lost by 22. But the Falcons don’t know who is going to play quarterback, and even if they do and just aren’t saying, none of their options are good. That’s just what the doctor ordered for a defense that’s looking to atone for being embarrassed the way they were last week.
Patriots (-5) over Steelers: Speaking of bouncing back, that’s exactly what I expect Drake Maye to do after his three interceptions in the Wednesday night opener last week against the Seahawks, including the horrible decision on the last one when his team was in position to kick a field goal and go to overtime.
Broncos (-2 ½) over Jaguars: Another team looking to bounce back after being embarrassed is the Broncos. That game Monday night against the Chiefs was over when Bo Nix got sacked on 2nd-and-goal from the 9 with about 8:00 left in the third quarter. Even though they made a field goal to cut the lead to 24-10, not getting a touchdown there was the end. The Jaguars dominated the Browns, but now they’re going to face a different kind of challenge here, and the Broncos will get revenge for last year’s home loss to the Jags.
Last week
College: 1-2
NFL: 1-2
Season
College: 4-5
NFL: 1-2
Tony
My humble partner in crime pretty much explained everything. Perhaps swimming with sharks (FYI: I never learned how to swim) or blindfolded darts would be easier than picking college football games.
Dear Oklahoma, WTF??? Thanks for nothing.
After three weeks, of college betting, I have learned nothing or know nothing. My great niece tells me that all the time. Yup, she’s right.
My NFL picks actually went to 2-1.
Here is to a new weekend of games and hopefully I stay Freezing Cold Takes.
North Texas (+2.5) at Texas State: I am not sure about this point spread; it is a strange one. Apparently, North Texas gets no respect for taking UNLV behind the woodshed and beating their butt. Texas State is 0-2 and has joined the new Pac 12. North Texas played somewhat close with Indiana. Meanwhile, Texas State lost to Texas and a last-second loss to UTSA. Perhaps I am not giving Texas State enough credit and over hyping the Mean Green. North Texas 37, Texas State 35
Florida at Auburn (+2.5): This is another line that looks strange to me but like I said, what do I know. Florida is on the road for the first time and has played nobody in Florida Atlantic and Campbell. The Gators past has not been the best. Auburn held on for a 17-16 win over Baylor to begin the season. This is certainly a step up in class for both squads, and the Gators having to play in a venue like Auburn’s is very unsettling, at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Until Florida can prove it, I’ll take Auburn. Auburn 31, Florida 20.
Montana (+17.5) at Oregon State: My upset special right here. My 5-star bet the mortgage. Please don’t. Please. There is not much difference between the new Pac 12, Mountain West and the Big Sky Conference. Even though Montana is an FCS school and a member of the Big Sky; the Grizzlies are a hell of a team. Montana State showed that last week at Nevada. Montana goes in and wins outright. Montana 30, Oregon State 24.
Vikings at Bears (-4.5): It is overreaction time in week 2 and I am sticking with the Bears. Are they going to score 59 points again, probably not. That is safe to say. Sorry Vikings fans, I don’t trust Carson Wentz. The Bears defense is better than what they showed in week 1. The Bears play with a decent amount of pace, and they’re explosive. Caleb Williams averaged 12.4 yards per completion last week, which could even improve against a Vikings secondary that just gave up 16.8 to Jordan Love – the second-highest mark in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson’s performance against the Colts. Bears 31, Vikings 13
Eagles (-6.5) at Titans: Tennessee lost 23-10 to the hapless J E T S in week 1 and looked horrible. Robert Saleh was facing a team that fired him and could not get his Titans up to play. Philadelphia had a tough matchup with Wahington and squeaked by. The Titans’ Cam Ward is in for a long day. Eagles 28, Titans 6
Jaguars (+2.5) at Broncos: Is Davis Webb still calling plays for Denver? Asking for a friend. It could not have gone worse for the Broncos in week 1 in Kansas City. I don’t think it gets any better on Sunday. Trevor Lawerence and the Jags come back into Denver and send Bronco fans into a panic. Jaguars 27, Denver 23
Last week
College: 1-2
NFL: 2-1
Season
College: 3-6
NFL: 2-1
Comment
Comments